Clearly, it is still early on to be speculating about potential 2012 Presidential candidates. We should be focusing on the 2010 elections as much as possible. But, like every other political dork out there, I cannot resist observing and commenting on who appear to be the current frontrunners. I think it can help one tell where the party is currently. In particular, I am curious to see how the Tea Party movement has affected things, and if the party really has taken a step towards truly limited government.
Judging by the results of a recent poll posted at NRO, it would appear that the effect may be smaller than we had thought. For starters, the emphasis the Tea Party has seemed to place on fiscal conservatism, as opposed to social conservatism, has not dented the approval of candidates like Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee. One can perhaps see the appeal of Sarah Palin, being the icon she has become to many. But it is very, very worrying that Huckabee is even in the picture. He is both an aggressive social conservative (and, I believe, a bigot), and not a good fiscal conservative at all. He is a populist entertainer, and that’s being kind.
If the Republican Party is going to continue to embrace the style of Palin and Huckabee, we are in big trouble. Both are mainly popular amongst white Christians. Needless to say, that is a major part of the party base but not near enough to win any future elections. To win these elections, the GOP needs to focus on the issues that matter to people at this point in time – things like massive spending, expanding government, unemployment, and energy. In focusing on these over the past couple years, the GOP has regained the help of many previously dispirited Americans and made a good case against those who say the parties are no different.
If, instead, a strong social conservative is nominated, the conservative-libertarian coalition that has powered the Tea Party movement would shatter. Quite simply, libertarians and conservatives are worlds apart on social issues. To the average libertarian, for example, the idea of supporting a Constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage is an absolutely unacceptable attack on freedom, and a gross abuse of power to satisfy a base that is, sadly, largely anti-gay. Yet Palin, Huckabee, and other social conservatives like John Thune find this to be an acceptable use of power. This type of thing shows the existence of the always-present fault line inherent in the GOP. Were the fracture to happen, it would demolish the GOP and any chance of winning anything but the reddest of red states.
We must, then, reject and shy away from any candidate that would further such a break. The above mentioned candidates would all do so to some degree. Huckabee and Palin are just two well-known examples of politicians who believe in a sort of “freedom for me, but not for thee” ideology that makes libertarians’ skin crawl. Their positions on economic issues are largely sound, but when it comes to issues of personal freedom they hold some atrocious views. Their voices are welcome in the party, but they must not be allowed to become seen as leaders, let alone the party nominee. That would be a complete disaster.